000
WTNT31 KNHC 171441
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF CUBA...NEW WARNINGS AND
WATCHES IN FLORIDA...
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.  A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO ANNA
MARIA ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO
GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 350 MILES...
560 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY.  FAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN
CUBA.  ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  CABO CRUZ CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 66
MPH...107 KM/HR.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
 
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  HEAVY RAIN
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.5 N...78.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN