000
WTNT31 KNHC 161435
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM HAITI...NEW WARNINGS AND
WATCHES ISSUED...
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...
AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT
FOE THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.  ALSO....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
 
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
 
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N...73.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN