000
WTNT31 KNHC 160852
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...FAY WILL CROSS HAITI AND EMERGE OVER WATER LATER TODAY...
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE
NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF CENTRAL CUBA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... 35 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
235 MILES...375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
 
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
FAY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
 
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.7 N...72.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB