000
WTNT31 KNHC 020001
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
800 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS HURRICANE NOEL AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.
 
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE
NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
 
NOEL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...29 KM/HR...AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOEL IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  NOEL SHOULD
THEN STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 
INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...AND
THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...76.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA