000
WTNT31 KNHC 010545
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
200 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
 
...CENTER OF NOEL APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 195 MILES...315
KM...SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
 
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR...AND THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...78.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN