000
WTNT31 KNHC 010236
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
...NOEL MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO WORSEN IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 210 MILES...335
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
 
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 996
MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...78.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA