000
WTNT31 KNHC 312352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
800 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
...NOEL A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
 
NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A
GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...78.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA