000
WTNT31 KNHC 310544
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
200 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
...NOEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 21.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...NORTHWEST
OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NASSAU.
 
NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...
7 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...NOEL IS EXPECTED
TO EMERGE OFF OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER
WATER.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS
OF 30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.  THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...78.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN