000
WTNT31 KNHC 302353
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
 
...NOEL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND
ABOUT 275 MILES...440 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
 
NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH...6
KM/HR.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER CUBA OVERNIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS.  THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...78.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE