000
WTNT31 KNHC 301159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
 
...NOEL MOVING WESTWARD OVER EASTERN CUBA...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND
GUANTANAMO.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...RADAR DATA FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF HOLGUIN CUBA...AND ABOUT 275 MILES...445
KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
 
NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD EMERGE
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ALL OF THE
BAHAMAS.  THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...76.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA