000
WTNT31 KNHC 300841
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND
GUANTANAMO.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...RADAR DATA FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...VERY NEAR THE TOWN OF GIBARA ON THE
NORTH COAST OF CUBA...AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. 
 
NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...NOEL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SAME FORWARD
SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  THESE
RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.
 
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...76.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA