000
WTNT31 KNHC 300546
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
 
...NOEL MOVING VERY CLOSE OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF 
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN
CUBA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST...VERY NEAR OR OVER 
PUNTA LUCRECIA ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
 
NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SAME FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
NORTH OF COAST OF CUBA TODAY.
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  THESE
RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...75.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA