000
WTNT31 KNHC 292057
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN CUBA...
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 215
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB