000
WTNT31 KNHC 291759
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007
 
...NOEL REMAINS DISORGANIZED...CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF
CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI SOUTH
OF GONAIVES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO GONAIVES.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NOEL. 

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...25 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS OR NORTHEASTERN CUBA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THESE RAINS...
PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.5 N...73.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI