000
WTNT31 KNHC 291444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...CENTER OF DISORGANIZED NOEL ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST
OF HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS...
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT
300 MILES...500 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE NOEL THIS
AFTERNOON TO MORE PRECISELY LOCATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 
 
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THESE RAINS...
PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...19.9 N...73.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI