000
WTNT31 KNHC 291159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007
 
...NOEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI...AND IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. THIS WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR NEAR
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. 
 
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE CENTER OF NOEL IS BECOMING
DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF HAITI DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AS NOEL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
HISPANIOLA...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER EMERGES
OVER ATLANTIC WATERS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS ARE NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THESE RAINS...
PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N...72.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB