000
WTNT31 KNHC 281443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...DEPRESSION ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
HAITI.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD PASS SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA...HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
WILL PASS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND
JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB