000
WTNT31 KNHC 280230
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR.  A MOTION TOWARD NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ON SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.  TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES.  ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN