000
WTPZ25 KNHC 040847
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052023
0900 UTC FRI AUG 04 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 124.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 127.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 133.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.2N 136.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.0N 140.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.8N 144.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 12.7N 151.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 159.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 125.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI