000
WTPZ25 KNHC 140231
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152017
0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.2N 122.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.4N 123.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY