000
WTPZ25 KNHC 240241
TCMEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 104.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 330SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 104.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.7N 103.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART