000
WTPZ25 KNHC 210840
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA...AND A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  96.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  96.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  95.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.2N  97.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.0N  99.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  96.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH