000
WTPZ25 KNHC 210233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PATRICIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  95.3W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  95.3W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  95.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.0N  96.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N  98.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.2N 100.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W...INLAND NEAR COAST
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 22.6N 105.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  95.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART