000
WTPZ25 KNHC 161436
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1500 UTC THU JUL 16 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 111.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 111.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 111.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 111.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG