000
WTPZ25 KNHC 160844
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 30.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 111.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS