000
WTPZ25 KNHC 151431
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 109.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.8N 111.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 112.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.8N 113.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 115.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.9N 118.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG