000
WTPZ25 KNHC 150233
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 109.2W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 109.2W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.2N 110.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 113.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 109.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH