000
WTPZ25 KNHC 140837
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.0N 110.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 113.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.9N 116.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 107.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS