000
WTPZ25 KNHC 140230
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.9W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.9W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.5N 107.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 109.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 110.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.2N 112.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH