000
WTPZ25 KNHC 132031
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.5N 107.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.1N 108.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 112.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 118.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 106.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN