000
WTPZ25 KNHC 130233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE  40SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 170SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.1N 106.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 107.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.4N 112.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH