000
WTPZ25 KNHC 070847
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 120.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE  15SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 120.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 120.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 121.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 121.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 122.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 16.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 15.5N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 120.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG