000
WTPZ25 KNHC 122038
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
2100 UTC THU JUL 12 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 122.4W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 160SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 122.4W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.1N 124.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.4N 126.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.6N 128.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N 131.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 122.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA