000
WTPZ25 KNHC 110848
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
0900 UTC WED JUL 11 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 116.6W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 116.6W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.8N 121.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.2N 128.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.8N 133.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N 138.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 116.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART