000
WTPZ25 KNHC 081437
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
1500 UTC SUN JUL 08 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 105.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 105.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 105.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 11.7N 107.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.5N 110.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.9N 114.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 15.8N 121.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 105.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE