000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110838 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 0900 UTC TUE OCT 11 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.9W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 300SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.9W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.9N 105.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 50SE 50SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.3N 105.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.2N 105.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.5N 105.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN