000
WTPZ25 KNHC 110234
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
0300 UTC TUE OCT 11 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN
BLAS MEXICO...AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF SAN BLAS
TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 106.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 300SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 106.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  45SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.1N 105.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 106.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH