000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102037 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 2100 UTC MON OCT 10 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 300SE 300SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.2N 105.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 55SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 110SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.7N 104.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 70SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART