000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100851 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 0900 UTC MON OCT 10 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 107.2W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 240SE 300SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 107.2W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.6N 106.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.3N 105.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.1N 105.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 55SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 55SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 120SE 110SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN