000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100239 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 0300 UTC MON OCT 10 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 107.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 270SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 107.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.6N 106.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 45SE 45SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.9N 105.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 55SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.1N 104.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 120SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 104.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 24.0N 104.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH