000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092042 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 2100 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 270SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 45SE 45SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.4N 106.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.1N 105.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 55SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 110SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 104.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART