000
WTPZ25 KNHC 091432
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  35SE  35SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  75SE  75SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 109.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.2N 106.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  45SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.6N 105.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  25SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  50SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.5N 105.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  55SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.3N 104.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  55SE  55SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE 110SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.5N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 108.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART