000
WTPZ25 KNHC 090834
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOVA.  WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.2W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  35SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  75SE  75SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.2W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.9N 108.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  90SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE 105SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.2N 105.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 45NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 105SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.6N 105.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  65SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 135SE 105SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN