000
WTPZ25 KNHC 082045
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOVA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.2W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 180SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.2W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.0N 109.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE 105SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.3N 107.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 105SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  70SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE 135SE 105SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.4N 105.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  65SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT...105NE 135SE 105SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 110.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART