000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081501 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOVA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 110.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 110.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.0N 109.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.1N 108.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 105SE 105SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 105SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 70SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 135SE 105SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.3N 105.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 65SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 135SE 105SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.5N 104.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART