000
WTPZ25 KNHC 080842
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOVA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  90SE  90SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  90SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 108.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  55SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE 105SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.6N 107.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  65SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 105SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  70SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE 135SE 105SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  65SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT...105NE 135SE 105SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 110.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG