000
WTPZ25 KNHC 072031
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 110.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  90SE  90SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 110.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 110.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.3N 110.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  45SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 109.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 45NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...110NE 135SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 106.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 135SE 110SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 110.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE