000
WTPZ25 KNHC 062034
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 107.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 107.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 107.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.4N 108.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.3N 109.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 109.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.2N 109.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  65SE  50SW  65NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 107.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART