000
WTPZ25 KNHC 060849
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 105.8W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 105.8W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 105.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 10.7N 106.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  25SE  20SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.4N 109.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  35SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.1N 109.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 18.3N 105.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 105.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE