000
WTPZ25 KNHC 042041
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2008
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 100.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 100.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 100.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 101.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 103.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  35SE  35SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 100.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA